Senin, 19 Agustus 2013

PDF Ebook Feasting on the Gospels--Luke, Volume 1: A Feasting on the Word Commentary

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Feasting on the Gospels--Luke, Volume 1: A Feasting on the Word Commentary


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Feasting on the Gospels--Luke, Volume 1: A Feasting on the Word Commentary

About the Author

Cynthia A. Jarvis is Minister of The Presbyterian Church of Chestnut Hill in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The coeditor of Loving God with the Mind: The Pastor as Theologian and The Power to Comprehend with All the Saints: The Formation and Practice of a Pastor-Theologian, she served on the editorial board of the Feasting on the Word series.

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Product details

Hardcover: 368 pages

Publisher: Westminster John Knox Press (October 6, 2014)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0664235514

ISBN-13: 978-0664235512

Product Dimensions:

7 x 1 x 10 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

5.0 out of 5 stars

7 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#841,697 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This, along with the Feasting on the Word series, are the best books for lectionary-based sermon preparation on the market. They work well for the non-lectionary preacher, too. In this volume, each passage in Luke receives commentary from an exegetical, theological, pastoral and homiletical point of view. The scholarship is top-notch. Well worth the money.

Like the other commentaries in this series, Feasting on the Gospels--Luke provides short essays packed with ideas for preaching and sharing the good news embedded in the scripture. Not every essay on every passage will be helpful or informative, but I always find at least 1 out of 4 that provides fuel for the fire.What a blessing to be gifted a commentary specifically designed for preachers. Reading the essays, I often feel known and understood by the authors.

A great companion to Feasting on the Word.

Gives you the background and info to assist you as you prepare to present given text.

A very nice companion piece to the Feasting on the Word commentaries.

Extremely satisfied by the whole series

It is great tool for preacher!

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Rabu, 14 Agustus 2013

PDF Ebook , by Judy Patterson Wright

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File Size: 386087 KB

Print Length: 323 pages

Publisher: Human Kinetics, Inc.; 3 edition (January 8, 2013)

Publication Date: January 8, 2013

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B00AQBPBAW

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This is pretty good idea, but very "wordy" - like they keep giving you a sales pitch - in nearly every paragraph - to keep you interested. We've been dancing for years and were mostly curious to see if they had put lightening in a bottle. Nope. It takes at least a couple of years to become a good dancer, and you'll hear and see or all of this on the way to getting better and better. This won't hurt you, but won't help you an awful lot either. Reading about dancing is nowhere as good as being in a class with a good teacher. As a textbook, this might be OK, but you'll need a class, or, classes for it to really be useful. If you've got twenty extra dollars and are curious - good luck. We'll find someone to give ours to...

I was looking for a dance instruction book with which to refresh some dance steps learned long time ago; this search led me to check out Judy Patterson Wright's Social Dance - Steps to Success (2nd Edition) from the local public library. I was happy enough with this book (with a music CD) and was trying to order the book from Amazon. By sheer luck, I found that there was a third edition, with a DVD. This book and DVD combination is the best value among the many Dance DVD's I have looked at from the local library -- I browsed through about 12 such DVD's.Let me elaborate why I believe this book-DVD-combination is such a fantastic value for me.1. The highly acclaimed book was expanded and brought up to date with new pictures; a couple of additional dance styles as well as expanded chapters (about 100 page additional materials added) make the book itself more than worth the total price;2. The DVD is fantastic -- the demonstrations are clear, attractive, economical in presentation, and contain many more variations for each dance than most other books I have looked at. Male and female separate parts are shown together and therefore eliminated usually boring repeats that eats up unnecessary time. This presentation method represents a clear innovation.3. One of my biggest stumbling block was identifying music and recognizing the underlying beat and matching those with appropriate dance. The instructions and the music CD helped me to overcome this uneasiness for me.I am preparing my retirement and looking for a dancing nights on cruises: with this book and DVD combination, I feel confident that I will be knowledgeable and polished enough to enjoy any and all type of ballroom dances. This is my first review ever on Amazon -- a spontaneous reaction to my gratitude to Judy Patterson Wright and producers of this wonderful book-DVD combination.

I watched the entire dvd and liked the short to the point series of clips for figures of each dance. I was able to go through the dances I was most interested in, and get a good overview in minutes, and then go back and watch each individual figure at my pace. I have been dancing for a few years, so it was easy to follow. A novice to dancing might not be able to digest the info in the fast presentation, but all the info is there on steps, body positioning, leading, following, timing, etc. A great buy!

Social Dance is a great book to learn how to ballroom dance. The instructions are organized very clearly. There are numerous exercises in order to get your muscle memory. My wife and I have really advanced using this book, it really got us off on the "right foot". The book and the DVD complement each other very clearly. If you can't understand something from the text, you can most likely pick it up from the DVD. And if you can't grasp something from the DVD, the book explains the technique very clearly. If you are starting out to dance, or are taking dance lessons and wish to have something to look at when you get home and find you "forgot" most of what the lesson was about; this book can help. I highly recommend it. This book would be a bargain at $100.

Really good one and so much better than the You Tube videos.

Good book, but can't really learn to dance without additional help.

I like the step by step approach.

very good book & dvd

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Minggu, 11 Agustus 2013

Get Free Ebook Friends Divided: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, by Gordon S. Wood

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Friends Divided: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, by Gordon S. Wood

Review

“This is an engrossing story, which Wood tells with a mastery of detail and a modern plainness of expression that makes a refreshing contrast with the 18th century locutions of his subjects.”  —The New York Times Book Review“Lucid and learned… Wood has become the leading historian of the ‘Founding Fathers’… Never has John Adams been more relevant than today.” —The Wall Street Journal"Whenever I read Gordon Wood, the dean of eighteenth century American historians, I feel as if I am absorbing wisdom at the feet of the master. Friends Divided is teeming with exceptionally acute and unvarnished insights into Thomas Jefferson and John Adams as they do battle for the nation's soul. Jefferson's sunny, almost Panglossian, optimism, juxtaposed with the dark, dyspeptic musings of Adams, presents readers with nothing less than a vivid composite portrait of the American mind." —Ron Chernow, author of Grant and Alexander Hamilton “This magisterial double biography recounts not only the lives of these two greatest founders but also the creation of the republic. It describes the world’s first successful democratic revolution and the founding of the first non-monarchical republic. . .  it is a book about ideas as represented by two philosophical statesmen, and it makes political history and philosophy exciting. . . In Wood’s hands, Adams and Jefferson become Shakespearean in stature.” —Edith B. Gelles, The Washington Post“Excellent . . . Friends Divided is an engaging book that's sure to appeal to anyone with an abiding interest in Revolution-era America and the leaders who shaped the country. Beautifully written and with real insight into Jefferson and Adams, it's a worthy addition to the canon, and yet another compelling book from Wood.” —NPR“For decades now Gordon S. Wood, the Alva O. Way university professor of history at Brown and winner of the Pulitzer Prize, has been the go-to authority on everything related to the American Revolution. That Wood has written “Friends Divided’’ — a finely-crafted dual biography of Adams and Jefferson — is therefore a hearty cause for celebration. Every page sparkles with literary eloquence, flawless analysis, and dramatically plotted history that contains a lesson for a riven time.” — Douglas Brinkley, Boston Globe“Gordon Wood is one of America’s premier historians and a national treasure. Winner of the Pulitzer as well as the Bancroft Prize, he is a rare scholar who writes with a combination of insight, academic depth, and accessible prose. In his latest book, penned at the summit of his career, Wood now sets his sights on the relationship of two of America’s most remarkable and fascinating statesmen, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams. The story is enthralling…In this magnificent book, Gordon Wood has continued his invaluable work.” — Jay Winik, National Review “In Friends Divided, Gordon S. Wood, a professor at Brown University and our finest historian of 18th-century America, provides a splendid account of the improbable friendship, estrangement and reconciliation between Adams, an irascible, ironic, hypersensitive middle-class New England lawyer, and Jefferson, a self-contained, diplomatic, slaveholding Virginia aristocrat.” —Minneapolis Star Tribune “The acclaimed historian engages in a compelling examination of the complex relationship of the Founding Fathers…Among the other well-known personages in the narrative are Abigail Adams, Alexander Hamilton, and Benjamin Rush, all portrayed vividly by the author, whose approachable writing style is equal to his impressive archival research…An illuminating history of early Americans that is especially timely in the ugly, partisan-filled age of Trump.” —Kirkus Reviews, starred review"As the dean of American historians, Gordon Wood had long shaped the nation's thinking about the true nature of the Founding. Now he turns his intellectual honesty and clear-eyed prose to the lives of Jefferson and of Adams, giving us a brilliant portrait of their complicated relationship. This is an indispensable account of two men, of the country they built, and of why their legacies matter even now. Bravo!" —Jon Meacham, author of American Lion and of Thomas Jefferson: The Art of Power   “America's dialogue with its competing impulses had its origins in the fractured friendship of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.  Gordon Wood brings his unmatched knowledge of the scholarly literature to the task of recovering both sides of what is still America's longstanding argument with itself.” —Joseph J. Ellis, author of the forthcoming Then and Now: The Founders and US

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About the Author

Gordon S. Wood is the Alva O. Way University Professor and professor of history at Brown University. His books have received the Pulitzer, Bancroft and John H. Dunning prizes, as well as a National Book Award nomination and the New York Historical Society Prize in American History. They include Empire of Liberty: A History of the Early Republic, Revolutionary Characters, The Purpose of the Past, The Americanization of Benjamin Franklin, and The Idea of America.

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Product details

Hardcover: 512 pages

Publisher: Penguin Press; 1st Edition edition (October 24, 2017)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0735224714

ISBN-13: 978-0735224711

Product Dimensions:

6.4 x 1.6 x 9.6 inches

Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.5 out of 5 stars

67 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#86,973 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Friends Divided: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson by Gordon S. WoodsThis is a wonderful book that explains far better than any I have read previously the love/hate relationship of these two revered founders of our nation. Like oil and water, these two worked together to craft a nation, but separated bitterly as their inherent differences came to bear. Yet they were smart enough and, perhaps cordial enough, to carefully bring that complex relationship into a tentative friendship in their latter years through an amazing correspondence. While their rivalry always simmered just beneath the surface, they considered many questions that divide and unite Americans still. The journey of their relationship is important to consider in these divisive times, and Woods lays it out clearly in this book.Gordon S. Woods is a thorough and careful historian. His description in one of the earlier chapters of this book of the different points of view in Massachusetts and Virginia goes far to explain the rifts that are part of our nation today. “All men are created equal” was the ideal, but not the reality in either world populated by the founders of our country. Both delineated the social strata of the country’s population in such a way that makes it clear how it those same divisions have continued to this day. We still struggle trying to achieve that ideal, and one wonders if it really is achievable in the hearts of men. This is no dry recounting of deeds like many historical works. Woods goes deeply into the issues at the heart of each ideology. He examines where they run parallel and where they split off into entirely different directions. He presents an understanding of what happened which sheds much light on what continues to happen in this country. One hopes this book becomes a must-read at the college level.My take-away from reading this book is a simple one. We Americans are all friends divided. Only by dialogue and understanding can we agree to disagree and live together in peace. This is a great leasson for us all

Studies in contrasts tend to give readers bonus joy; this book is no exception. The fact that this book examines the lives of two founding fathers of the United States of America is sufficient reason to read it, but the author, Wood, a Professor of History, goes beyond a comparison of the achievements of each of these two men. The details are rich with amazing stories and inspiring deeds.Wood is a craftsman too. His description of the personalities and character of the subject sometimes makes one wonder if this was a fairy tale. It is not. Jefferson was born an aristocrat who had the pleasure and leisure to indulge in philosophy, and that seemed to help shape his idealism. Adams, by contrast, was ‘middling-born’ and had few friends when young. He rose strictly by effort and merit, and that, in turn, made him more a pragmatist than Jefferson.Jefferson loved the French and art (not to mention French wine) although ‘he found the bulk of the [French] population to be oppressed, Adams loved the English constitution. Both loved the country they helped create; both became vice-presidents, and then presidents of the USA. But their personalities were different, and their approach to government were different. Crucially, Jefferson believed in liberal democracy as Adams believed that such democracy ‘will infallibly destroy all Civilization’.Wood traces the contributions of both Jefferson and Adams through the resistance against the British, the formulation of the American constitution, and the immense rivalry between them when they were vice-presidents and presidents. And yet, when they eventually retired, they buried the hatchet and ‘became reconciled in friendship’. Adams uttered, just before he died in 1826, ‘At least Jefferson still lives’, not knowing that Jefferson had died a few hours earlier, on the same day, fifty years after the American independence.

Just when it seemed probable that Gordon Wood, the much decorated historian of the early days of the American Republic, would have run out of material after writing eight marvelous histories of this period, here comes yet another. Friends Divided is an absolute home run. It is readable, informative, even exciting at times. It breaks no new ground but it persuasively presents the strengths and weaknesses of two of the most important figures of the founding of our country: John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.Adams of course is relentlessly serious and determined. He is vastly well read, a marvelous political thinker, ambitious, argumentative, and even at times venomous. He takes offense easily, his feelings are never hidden. He argues his side of an issue as if it were the most important argument of his life. But in the end he is careful and effective as a senator and then as the second President of the country. As the political parties began to take early shape after the Revolution, Adams emerges as one of the leaders of the Federalist party.Jefferson is quite the opposite in so many ways. He is an epicurean, at times more interested in his collection of expensive French wines than matters of state, wonderfully articulate, charming, and always trusting in the essential worth and promise of the American experiment in self government. In a very close election, with only eight electoral college votes separating them, Jefferson became the third president of the United States. He is the leader of an opposite political party, what was then called the Republicans.These two men, different in so many ways, believed in the promise of America. In their later lives, long lives by any standard, they corresponded regularly. This correspondence convinced each of them that the other had remarkable gifts, unseen earlier in their careers. This close relationship, almost entirely contained in a full library of letters between the two of them, ended only on their deaths. Amazingly, both died on the same day, July 4, 1826, the fiftieth anniversary of the publication of the Declaration of Independence, Jefferson’s magnificent explanation of the reasons for the American revolt against British rule.Woods chooses to name Jefferson as the more important of these two men in terms of their impact on the shape of the American experiment. He argues his case well but, in this reader’s opinion, fails to place one final weight on the scale: in the end, he chooses to ignore Jefferson’s ownership of slaves and even his lengthy sexual exploitation of a black woman. Jefferson’s other gifts are, without question, remarkable but his treatment of black Americans must be seen for what it was: reprehensible.

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Sabtu, 27 Juli 2013

Download Ebook , by Dwight Gooden Ellis Henican

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, by Dwight Gooden Ellis Henican

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File Size: 3408 KB

Print Length: 306 pages

Page Numbers Source ISBN: 1542047714

Publisher: Amazon Publishing (June 4, 2013)

Publication Date: June 4, 2013

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B00AQMH0EQ

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#52,773 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

I give Doc high marks for disclosure. He certainly put it all out there and held nothing back. Some of his history was disturbing, depressing and embarrassing, but he dealt with it all head on. As far as honesty, who really knows? He took most of the blame for most of his troubles and bad decisions, but he also spread some blame around, specifically to the Tampa cops. As usual, the truth probably is somewhere in the middle.Liked almost everything about the book, especially the intro about missing the parade. If that doesn't grab you in and get your attention, then don't bother reading on.The only part I could have lived w/o was all the drama and details of his time on Celebrity Rehab. I'm glad it seems to have finally helped him deal with his addictions, but the only thing more boring than watching Michael Lohan and Amy Fisher get sober is reading about it.Here's to hoping he's turned the corner for good.

I haven't read any previous book written about or by Dwight Gooden or the Mets team he played for. I can't compare excerpts between "Heat" and "Doc", and I have no plans to read the former. I give this book five stars because, for one thing, it's extremely well-written and never came close to boring me or seeing something in the book that was already mentioned previously in detail (as compared to the books I've read that were written by Fritz Peterson). The book isn't written for the baseball fan who wants to read Gooden's take on his greatness as a pitcher and all the games he won. The book is about his life, particularly his experiences, his flaws and struggles from childhood to present day. I imagine writing this book is part of his never-ending process toward recovery. I think it's a good read, and a very important one. You get an intimate understanding of what he did and how he did it, and how easy it was from him to deny and lie about his addictions, eventually really confronting them head-on without making any excuses for his behavior. I think many who read this book will take a hard look at themselves if they have or have had any similar issues experienced by Dwight Gooden.

In his book, Doc doesn't focus on the past and doesn't seem to be looking for sympathy on account of what could have been. He talks baseball and in doing so it becomes obvious that Doc had a great career. He acknowledges that it was difficult at times. He talks at length about his struggles with alcohol and drugs, and the effect it has had on his life. I learned that throughout it all, nothing was ever taken for granted, and nothing came without hard work. In today's world, that is something to be proud of. His addiction notwithstanding, the world would be a better place if there were more people like Doc Gooden. I hope he is well. I'd recommend this book not only to baseball fans, but to all of those who are fighting, or who have fought, the good fight.

I still remember when Doc was ROY and the best pitcher I'd seen start their career in my lifetime. I'm a few months older than he is and the idea that someone my age(19 at the time) could do what he was doing was incredible. There were a few incidents in the book I didn't remember hearing about. I'm sorry that one of my "heroes" had to go through all the things Dwight did but I'm glad that through God, love, and family he has finally been able to get clean & stay that way. In 1984 I would guess that just about every male 20 years old or younger would have given almost anything to be Dwight Gooden, including Doc himself, and I'm sure it would have been a challenge for most of them. I'm glad he made it through all this alive, I'm glad he spends time trying to caution kids on the trappings of drugs, & I'm glad he wrote the book.

A good read. Growing up a Mets fan this is an interesting book to get into. At times it’s frustrating to read his plight but the entertainment value is high. It is indeed a memoir and it must be considered as one navigates through the pages. It’s fun to get a behind the scenes prospective but frustrating to know what could have been, I guess the conflict is what makes a good story. Recommended for someone who watched from the sidelines wondering what really happened.

Thank you Doc for sharing your story. I struggled with active addiction for 24 years and I identified a lot with your story. I went to a great rehab but not a famous one and they also set up a meeting for my family and myself. I also paid great attention to aftercare. Your meeting with your son brought me to tears. April 15, 2018 I will be celebrating 33 years in recovery. I hope you get to see this post so that you may have hope. Every addict and every person in recovery should read this book. This book is therapy!

What a fantastic and in depth story about Doc Gooden's struggle with life's obstacles. If your a Mets,Yankees or just a fan, this is the book to read. I loved how Doc opened up about his addictions and his triumphs on and off the diamond. Keep clean Doc. We love you.

I was in awe of Dwight Gooden as a kid, even if it was at the expense of my team (lifelong Phillies fan). This is a story of the highest of highs in baseball success to the lows of his long struggle with addiction to finally coming to terms with himself. It's a very honest and rewarding read.

As the saying goes, Addiction does not discriminate. The daily battle is real and this book points a clear picture of the early formation and later transformation into a full blown drug addict. Doc is honest and upfront and I wish him the best. There are some lingering resentments I feel need to be addressed but the surrender and acceptance is the way. Not as much baseball details as I had hoped for on his amazing runs but I get it. That identity was not healthy for this boyhood idol of mine.

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Sabtu, 06 Juli 2013

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Product details

File Size: 1657 KB

Print Length: 178 pages

Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited

Publisher: O'Reilly Media; 1 edition (June 15, 2015)

Publication Date: June 16, 2015

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B00ZSOAWYM

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#621,092 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

Too short for a book, too long for introduction to SaltStack, it is almost useless if you already use it. I wish this book be something like 'Ansible Up & Running' by Lorin Hochstein.

Good book

This book helped me come up to speed about Salt in just 3 days - I work in a company trying to migrate their apps to the cloud and one of the challenges was migrating from an older orchestration framework (mcollective) to Salt - chosen because of its consistent programming model and its scalability with speed.I just wished the book had more details about Salt's capability for different topologies and how we can leverage more with Runners by writing our own custom orchestration mechanism. But I understand that the authors PoV that this book is meant to show us the door about different powerful capabilities about Salt - and its website has the path to more details, which makes sense.

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Jumat, 05 Juli 2013

Free PDF U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)

Free PDF U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)

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U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)

U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)


U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)


Free PDF U.S.Citizenship test translated in Russian: 100 questions U.S. Citizenship test translated in Russian (English and Russian Edition)

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Sincerely, L.Hensley

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Product details

Paperback: 78 pages

Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform; Bilingual edition (August 19, 2010)

Language: English, Russian

ISBN-10: 1453706410

ISBN-13: 978-1453706411

Product Dimensions:

5 x 0.2 x 8 inches

Shipping Weight: 4.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

3.3 out of 5 stars

9 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,231,884 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Nice book - bought it for a present

Good book!

Thank you

good job

My wife is learning English and is awaiting citizenship. This book was well translated and puts what is necessary before us! This will also teach her a lot about our country.

Questions and answers on the Russian language for test in English!!! Where the officer will check, how you understand oral text and written ability. Stupid book.Don't waste your money. You can get this book or CD for free everywhere.

"Translated in Russian". Hahahshs!!! What a shame that some people think this "book" is helpful. Don't waste your money! Crap!

Not good.

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Senin, 01 Juli 2013

Download PDF Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart, by Ian Ayres

Download PDF Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart, by Ian Ayres

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Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart, by Ian Ayres

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart, by Ian Ayres


Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart, by Ian Ayres


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"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted.  Super Crunching is truly reinventing government.  Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed.  Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.'  That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress "A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review "Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education “Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes

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About the Author

Ian Ayres ,an econometrician and lawyer, is the William K. Townsend Professor at Yale Law School, and a professor at Yale's School of Management. He is a regular commentator on public radio's Marketplace and a columnist for Forbes magazine. He is currently the editor of the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, and has written eight books and more than a hundred articles.

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Product details

Paperback: 320 pages

Publisher: Bantam; Reprint edition (August 26, 2008)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0553384732

ISBN-13: 978-0553384734

Product Dimensions:

5.2 x 0.7 x 8.3 inches

Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

3.9 out of 5 stars

158 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#472,889 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Great book on the importance of data-driven decision making. While I have always been someone that has let the data do the talking, I haven't found an easy way to explain why. Super Crunchers is that easy way! Below I have summarized some of the important points of the book....Super Crunching is crucially about the impact of statistical analysis on real-world decisions. Two core techniques for Super Crunching are the regression and randomization.1. Regression will make your predictions more accurate (Historical approach):It all starts with the use of regressions, and although this method is a basic statistical test of causal relationship it's still a very powerful tool that I need to re-introduce in my analytical life.Regressions make predictions and tell you how precise the prediction is. It tries to hone in on the causal impact of a variable on a dependent. It can tell us the weights to place upon various factors and simultaneously tell us how precisely it was able to estimate these weights.2. Randomization and large sample sizes (Present/Real-Time approach):Reliance on historical data increases the difficulty in discerning causation. Large randomized tests work because the distribution amongst the sample are increasingly identical. Think A/B testing on steroids that allows you to quickly test different combinations! Boils down to the averages of the "treated and untreated" groups.Government has embraced randomization as the best way to test what works. Statistical profiling led to smarter targeting of government supportWith finite amounts of data, we can only estimate a finite number of causal effects3. Neural networkUnlike the regression approach, which estimates the weights to apply to a single equation, the neural approach uses a system of equations represented by a series of interconnected switches.Computers use historical data to train the equation switches to come up with optimal weights. But while the neural technique can yield powerful predictions, it does a poorer job of telling you why it is working or how much confidence it has in its prediction.Super Crunching requires analysis of the results of repeated decisions. If you can't measure what you're trying to maximize, you're not going to be able to rely on data-driven decisions.We humans just overestimate our ability to make good decisions and we're skeptical that a formula that necessarily ignores innumerable pieces of information could do a better job than we could.

Decision making permeates our everyday life. It ranges from the personal to the industrial and commercial where the process becomes costly and critical. Traditionally businesses resorted to intuition and the advice of experts to make a major decision. Lately, however, more and more decision making is relying on data analysis and the use of computer.In this groundbreaking new book, “Super Crunchers”, the author, Ian Ayre, believes that the days of making decisions by relying on intuitions are gone. Today’s best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed and gaining greater insights into our human behavior. They are the super crunchers. Companies like Google and Amazon have amassed huge data about our behavior. They know our tastes better than we do, they understand our children’s needs, they know all about the shoes and clothes we buy and wear. They even know how much we’ll pay for our flights and whether the fares will go up or down. They are a new breed of decision makers who are now calling the shots.But how do these companies arrive at such massive information. Obviously, they need a huge amount of data to get comprehensive conclusions, and the data should be as randomized as possible to avoid bias. Interestingly, such data is now available through specialized companies whose business is to collect figures from computer charts, store receipts, company reports and the like, and sell them to researchers. They have data on the size of our shoes, the foods we eat, the medicines we buy, the games we play and even the colors we favor. Once the data is collected, researchers use regression and statistical analysis to evaluate the effect of different variables on a commodity or a behavioral trend, e.g. does music in factories increase productivity? Would a salary raise improve employee loyalty…..? And so on.Putting This new data-analysis approach to many fields has made remarkable improvements. Consider the effect on the medical field. The rise of data-based decision making has reversed conventional wisdom. For example it showed that beta blockers can actually help cardiac patients and that estrogen therapy does not help aging women. Now there is a diagnostic program called “Isabel” which allows physicians to enter a patient’s symptoms into a computer and receive the most likely diagnosis. It will also tell the doctor the possible drug that caused the symptoms. Soon it will even specify the most likely therapy. No wonder many doctors are getting concerned about the possible loss of their control over diagnoses once considered a most important factor in their profession.How are we then to look at this groundbreaking approach to decision making? One cannot dispute its speed and efficiency. It is simply remarkable! Business has put it to beneficial use, but mostly to maximize its profits from the unaware consumers. Medicine stands to gain from it technically while also helping the patient financially and health-wise. But buyer be ware! There are no guarantees and consumers have to view it critically on a case-by-case basis in order to evaluate its risks and benefits.F.R. QUBEINNov. 2017

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